Over at Slashdot they’re deabting whether software development has really improved. Every decade has it’s breakthough (Structured Design, Object Oriented Design, CMM, XP, Open Source) but I’d be hardpressed to say if I think things are significantly different than when I started in the 80’s. Having managed only small teams, I may be biased but I think a small team of talented developers still beats a big team of average ones. All that new tools and methods can do is raise the level of everyone, it will never close the gap between the best and the worst.
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